A new division head told me a story the other day that the company leaders had been focusing on the immediate promise of closed business (forecast) for that month's expected wins. When discussing future months, the leadership team based their idea of the market and future sales potential by enabling the sales team to discuss individual sales ‘stories’ from the front line sales managers – i.e., this person bought their products for “xyz” reason, so others are sure to follow – and accepted this analysis as a basis for estimating future growth.
Since leaderships' focus was the short-term sales wins, it was sketchy at best knowing exactly what the sales process entailed, what the metrics were to succeed, how accurate was the forecast, and what the next ½ year would bring (much less the following year) beyond trusting the individual sales stories. As the market required the industry to change from a transaction-based sales approach to a solution sales approach, the length of the sales cycle grew, as well, forcing a good portion of ‘find now, close now’ deals to be ‘start now, close next ½ year’ deals. Unfortunately, there were not trusted metrics or an emphasis on accurate pipeline reporting available to accurately forecast this transition.
I brought this discussion to Jim Olson, long-time sales and sales operations leader in the telecommunications, technology and software industries, and we spent the morning discussing his experiences on the five reasons why organizations should focus on the pipeline, not the forecast, as their first order of business.
1. Forecasting is a result of Pipeline Management, not the other way around. Accurate Pipeline management can help drive both short term and long term forecasting while developing an understanding of the length of the sales cycle. Driving forecasting – the promise in dollars and deals of what will be closed within this quarter (or other company-defined ‘short’ time-period) –eliminates sales representatives from focusing on or sometimes even revealing their opportunity pipeline (i.e., a sales rep knows they won’t get questioned on items the manager can’t see or doesn’t know about and chooses to just show what they are almost certain will close as a win in the short term). Forecasting with an established sales process has been provide to produce predictable results long-term and helps leaders understand the business. If an organization is only focusing on the commitment to close quarterly pipeline, it encourages the sales reps to not report the future potential closes.
2. Pipeline Tracking encourages open communication between Sales Rep and Sales Manager. By going through the pipeline and what opportunities are in what stages, what came in new, and what left the opportunity process, a manager will have a much better idea on the activities of the sales rep, provide guidance on territory management, ensure the right activities are being done for both closing deals this quarter and ensuring future quarter deals are being worked, and report his metrics back to senior management with much more confidence and accuracy. In other words, proper Pipeline Management allows you to know your true Opportunity base.
3. Analytics are available to understand if you know your opportunity base. If you are tracking your entire pipeline, with a defined and commonly used definition of the steps in the sale (i.e., sales stage process), you can easily calculate metrics like sales cycle length, close ratio, etc. From this information, you can not only understand what will be closing this quarter, but see what has potential for closing in future quarters. From there, you can then make business decisions on what is needed for the business (is the funnel big enough to support future expected growth?, are we driving enough leads today for future sales?, etc.).
4. You can build a more accurate Forecast. Knowing the pipeline and applying the historical metrics in #3, you can easily calculate the forecast through data, comparing that with the ‘commitments’ or ‘promised business’ that the sales reps are providing. Once you establish accuracy in your forecasts, you can then provide a framework to senior leadership on future quarter potential, including being more accurate in future quarter forecasts (i.e., create a data calculation to look at current funnel and apply the metrics – the ‘weighted’ or ‘factored’ calculation being an example of companies across industries with b2b multi-month sales processes). With the same defined sales stage and opportunity reporting base, your short-term Forecast becomes your upside and/or committed opportunity.
5. Increase Customer Benefit by prioritizing activities by forecast and sales stage. With an accurate pipeline, sales reps can understand where potential customers are in the sales cycle, timing discussions around discovery, customer requirements, benefits to the customer of a potential solution, etc., based on customer buying signals and where they are in the process. For example, a customer needs the software company that understands what you do and how you do it – and the sales rep knows at what point in the pipeline process to gather this information.
In addition to the above reasons, here are two more items to consider from a Chief Customer Officer view:
6. Lead Generation and Funnel Development requirements are defined. Building leads from either the marketing or sales perspective (research shows that the most efficient b2b businesses obtain 30% of leads from marketing campaigns and initiatives) are clearly understood if you can calculate both ways – from lead to close and from expected sales back to leads. Tracking the quantity and quality of leads is imperative to understand how many leads are needed to drive the Funnel increase that is needed to get the Opportunity base you need to deliver the sales results expected.
7. Provides direction for Marketing and Relationship Management Automation. To help the sales people keep ‘selling’ – i.e., actively work the pipeline deals and prospect – automation processes and systems are being implemented to assist with ‘keeping the contact warm’ until they become an active lead or ‘keeping in touch’ with the existing customers to help with Customer Success and upsell opportunities. Having a clear sales process with a well-defined Pipeline Management process ultimately helps the corporation trace back and define the requirements for marketing and relationship management automation.
Ultimately, senior executives want to know that sales is providing accurate current and future information surrounding sales and expected revenue. By starting with the Pipeline that is reported from a defined sales stage process, the sales leader can confidently provide executive management what they need to know on a consistent basis and ultimately develop a trusted reputation that helps when corporate initiatives to help sales are requested.